Consider the basic situation. The Afghan government in Kabul does not have any sort of legitimacy for the majority of the population. Nor has an army worthy of the name. It does not have a financial basis. Has almost no security nor military personnel anywhere. Faces opposition from a guerrilla war, the Taliban, who control half the country and that have strengthened steadily since the Taliban government was overthrown in 2001 by an invasion of foreign (mostly American). The New York Times reports that the Taliban "a sophisticated financial network direct me to pay for their insurgency operations," something that U.S. officials are trying, unsuccessfully, to cut.
Recently, President Hamid Karzai was elected with a vote clearly falsified. The U.S. government has agreed to swallow this because Karzai is the only major political Pashtun ethnic group that is the basis of support for the Taliban. Therefore, it is the only one who can hope to reach a political agreement with some or all of the Taliban.
The U.S. has been shamefully for the public to recognize the electoral fraud and were pressured to push Karzai to accept a second round of voting. There is no doubt that Karzai would win the ballot. After the election, his political position is very weak.
The main political ally of the United States in the region, Pakistan is clearly in collusion with the Taliban, largely for their own survival inside. The U.S. military commander, Gen. Stanley McChrystal, insists that 40,000 troops immediately, or it will be too late to win the war in Afghanistan. It seems very unlikely to get the full number of these troops, or in a manner fast enough to meet the deadline implied. There are many military figures who question the fact that he is correct in arguing that its 40,000 soldiers, soon came in, they can change the situation.
not very risky to suggest that America should withdraw from Afghanistan at some point. Who's coming to power in Afghanistan by then, it's a very open question. There may be a long civil war.
Within the United States, the opinion on the guerra "persa" sarà diviso in estremi. Sembra chiaro che i repubblicani si prepararino a mettere sotto accusa di traditori i democratici in generale e Obama in particolare. Il generale McChrystal potrebbe essere il loro candidato per la presidenza, se non nel 2012, poi nel 2016.
Obama non otterrà nessun credito da qualsiasi cosa faccia. Se fornisce sostegno pieno e immediato alle richieste McChrystal, continuera ad essere accusato dai repubblicani di averlo fatto troppo tardi. Allo stesso tempo, avrà generato profonda rabbia almeno tra la metà se non di più, tra coloro che hanno votato per lui nel 2008.
La guerra in Afghanistan diventerà la guerra di Obama. Quando gli Stati Uniti "perderanno" quella guerra sarà Obama, who is accused of having "lost". Although unable to approve some form of health legislation (which is possible), and even if the economic situation of the United States and the world would improve in the coming years (which is doubtful), the war in Afghanistan will remain a shadow larger and, as such, the most important element to judge his presidency.
Obama can change this situation dramatically moving in another direction - towards a speedy political settlement with the Taliban and a complete withdrawal? - Apart from the fact that there is no public evidence that Obama is considering this, there is still the level of public support in America to so that it is a political option for him. Still can not count with the necessary support within his own government to a drastic change.
So the United States and Obama stumble on the question, for one or two years, while the political and military situation deteriorates. Obama for America and, if lost lands heads, tails, they lose the same.
Source: http://www.rebelion.org/noticia.php?id=94743
0 comments:
Post a Comment